Department of
Meteorology

Special Course
Announcement

Meteorology 474
Computer Methods of Meteorological Analysis and Forecasting

Fall Semester 2004

3 credits

Time: Tues. & Thursday, 9:45 - 11:00 a.m.

Instructor: Dr. Mark Roulston

Contact: roulston@met.psu.edu

Purpose and Content

The value of weather forecasts lies in the impact they have on decision making. If weather forecasts do not improve decision making, then meteorology is of no more value than any other blue-skies science.

Weather forecasts are widely used to make decisions in many industries, such as the energy sector and agriculture. The effective use of forecasts in these sectors involves the integration of weather forecasts into decision making and risk management processes. Such integration demands a probabilistic and statistical approach to weather forecasting.

METEO 474 will focus on the methods and tools that are used to produce weather forecasts that can be used by a growing market of sophisticated forecast users who wish to use meteorological data to inform their decisions and allow them to control their risk. Meteorology graduates who combine knowledge of meteorological forecasting with an understanding of how forecasts drive decision making are in increasing demand in both the private and public sectors.

Concepts and methods that will be discussed will include chaos theory, probability, bayesian methods, decision theory and forecast verification.

This class is open to both meteo and non-meteo majors and has a basic statistics course (STAT 301, 401 or ENNEC 472) as a prerequisite. For further information, feel free to stop by Dr. Roulston’s office (506 Walker) or e-mail him at: roulston@met.psu.edu.