ABSTRACT
Ming Cai
Florida State University
Historically,
only the thermodynamic processes (e.g., water vapor, cloud, surface albedo,
and atmospheric lapse rate) that directly influence the TOA radiative energy
flux balance are considered in climate feedback analysis. One of my recent
research areas is to develop a new framework for climate feedback analysis
that explicitly takes into consideration not only the thermodynamic processes
that the directly influence the TOA radiative energy flux balance but also
the local dynamical (e.g., evaporation, surface sensible heat flux, vertical
convections etc) and non-local dynamical (large-scale horizontal energy
transport) processes in aiming to explain the warming asymmetry between
high and low latitudes, between ocean and land, and between the surface
and atmosphere.
In this talk, I will begin with a brief review on the partial radiative
perturbation (PRP) method, the primary climate feedback analysis method
used in the IPCC AR4 report. To demonstrate the need for developing a new
framework, I will present a theoretical evidence showing the change in the
atmospheric poleward energy transport is one of the leading factors causing
the polar warming amplification. The theoretical proof resolves the seemingly
paradox, namely, “how can the warming in high latitude be greater
than the low latitude warming by the atmospheric poleward heat transport
given the fact the atmospheric poleward heat transport itself is driven
by the poleward decreasing temperature profile?”
Next, I will propose a coupled atmosphere-surface climate feedback-response
analysis model (CFRAM) as a new framework for estimating climate feedback
and sensitivity in coupled general circulation models with a full physical
parameterization package. The formulation of the CFRAM is based on the energy
balance in an atmosphere-surface column. In the CFRAM, the isolation of
partial temperature changes due to an external forcing alone or an individual
feedback is achieved by solving the linearized infrared radiation transfer
model subject to individual energy flux perturbations (external or due to
feedbacks). The partial temperature changes are addable and their sum is
equal to the (total) temperature change (in the linear sense). The decomposition
of feedbacks is based on the thermodynamic and dynamical processes that
directly affect individual energy flux terms. Therefore, not only those
feedbacks that directly affect the TOA radiative fluxes but also those feedbacks
that do not directly affect the TOA radiation are explicitly included in
the CFRAM. The differences between the CFRAM and PRP will be illustrated
using a radiative-convective climate model. In the end, I will present some
results obtained with an idealized GCM model that does not include the hydrological
cycle (therefore, cloud and ice-albedo feedbacks are not included). The
CFRAM is used to isolate the partial temperature changes due to the external
forcing, due to water vapor feedback, local vertical convection and non-local
dynamical feedbacks. The sum of these partial temperature changes is responsible
for the (total) atmospheric and surface warming patterns derived from the
GCM climate perturbation simulations. The feedback analysis using the CFRAM
shows that the stronger polar warming in this idealized GCM climate simulation
is solely due to the non-local dynamical feedback, as in the theoretical
model.