METEO 460 Weather Risk and Financial Markets

Instructor: David W. Titley, Teaching Assistant: Amanda M. Walker

METEO 460, Weather Risk and Financial Markets 

Spring 2017

Summary:  The course introduces students to the role that weather plays as a source of financial and operational risk for business, markets, and other institutions. It also introduces the tools and concepts for weather risk management-the insurance products, financial instruments, and decision tools that organizations use to manage, reduce, and transfer their weather-related risks. Major topics include: (i) The concept of risk and the role of weather as a driver of economic risk; (ii) Probabilistic approaches to weather forecasting; (iii) Techniques for valuation of weather derivatives; (iv) Links between weather and markets for energy and agricultural commodities; and (v) Management of catastrophic hurricane risks. The course emphasizes practical forecasting exercises, simulated commodities trading, and communications of weather risk to non-meteorologists. 

Instructor:  David W. Titley

Teaching Assistant: Amanda M. Walker

Pre-requisites:  METEO 411;E B F 472 or STAT 301 or STAT 401;E B F 301 or E B F 473

Students who do not meet these prerequisites after being informed in writing by the instructor may be dis-enrolled during the first 10-day free add-drop period according to Administrative Policy C-5. If you have not completed the listed prerequisites, then promptly consult with the instructor if you have not done so already. Students who re-enroll after being dis-enrolled according to this policy are in violation of Item 15 on the Student Code of Conduct.  Any questions on pre-requisites, please contact the instructor immediately.

Course Schedule: Class meets from 12:05-1:20pm on Tues/Thurs in Rm 004 Deike Bldg. Lab meets Mo/Wed/Fri 10:10-11am/Fri 10:10-11am in Rm 511 Walker Bldg.  You need to attend the lab section you are assigned (once per week). 

Recommended (not required) textbooks:

Course Policies:

This capstone course in the Weather Risk option offers the student numerous opportunities to integrate their foundational knowledge of economics, statistics and the atmosphere to the practical challenges of making money in the market place. The semester-long trading projects provide a continuous learning experience where weather models and quantitative business analyses are used routinely to gain measurable skill in weather risk management.  Likewise, the various forecasting exercises are designed to expose students to a variety of medium range weather forecasting challenges they may reasonably encounter working in the weather risk field.  Here are the components (both for assessment and team work) of the class:

  1. Weekly trading meetings – starting with mechanics the week of 16 January. As 16 January is Martin Luther King Jr. Day and there are no classes scheduled, the first Monday Lab will be 23 January.
  2. I will have each “Up in the Air” team of two give a ~3 minute class presentation on a weather-risk / weather-related story pulled from the current news.  There are 5 teams; the first presentation will be the week of 27 February.
  3. Twice-weekly Natural Gas Energy Demand Index (N-GEDI) forecasting contest starting 00Z 20 January and ending 00Z 14 April.  You will forecast a probability distribution of the 4 to 8-day cumulative degree-days at EWR, ORD, HOU and LAX.  The cities are weighted by the regional natural gas use in the northeast, Midwest, Texas and west coast, respectively.  The index is calibrated such that ‘100’ reflects the average of the past thirty year weighted climatology.  An index value greater than 100 reflects higher degree day accumulation; an index value less than 100 reflects lower degree day accumulation.  We will cover the details of this index and how to forecast it in week One of the lectures. 
  4. Weekly significant wave height forecasting contest for the Gulf of Mexico at buoy location 42055 in the western Gulf starting 00Z 18 January and ending 00Z 14 April.  You will forecast the highest observed significant wave height for a six-hour period between 21Z Thursday – 03Z Friday for that week (aka Thursday evening local time).  The forecast will be submitted by 00Z Wednesdays (Tuesday evening ET). 
  5. Twice weekly 24-72 hour forecasts of 3-Hourly Winds for ABI starting 00Z 21 March and ending with the forecast submitted on 00Z 14 April.  These forecasts will be submitted NLT Monday and Thursday evenings (00Z Tuesday and 00Z Friday).
  6. CAT Risk Exercise – an assessment of property risk of hurricanes due on April 14.
  7. Extra Credit:  For each of the 3 forecasting contests (GEDI, Wave Height, ABI winds) you will receive 1/2 extra credit point if you beat the class consensus (that is, consensus minus the deterministic ‘control’ forecasts)
  8. Extra Credit:  If you finish your lab trading sessions (power, natural gas or soy beans, respectively) with the greatest positive balance in your section, you will receive 1 extra credit point.
  9. Extra Credit:  Write a 1000-1500 (2-3 page) review of either ‘The Smartest Guys in the Room’ or “The Drunkards’ Walk” for up to 2 extra credit points.   Maximum extra credit points for reviewing books is 2.
  10. Class participation through small homeworks, quizzes and active participation.
  11. One in-class mid-term.
  12. One final exam in finals week, unless you ‘opt out’.
  13. If you opt-out of the finals, you will prepare a poster session for submission to the Weather Risk Management Association (WRMA) annual meeting.  Details to be provided in Week #1 of class.
  14. Guest lecture material is testable.

Grading:

  • 35% Tests
    • 15% Mid-term
    • 20% Final (Cumulative) – or poster submission for WRMA. 
  • 25% Forecasting Exercises
    • 10% N-GEDI
    • 10% ABI Wind
    • 5% Sig Wave Buoy 42055
  • 20% Trading Sessions
  • 10% Up in the Air Presentation
  • 10% Participation (small homeworks, quizzes, weather risk story presentations)

Optional Extra Credit – (pick Project (1) or (2).  Only one will count for credit).  Up to 2 extra-credit points will be awarded for successful completion.

Project (1):  1000 – 1500 word review of Enron based on the recommended book “The Smartest Guys in the Room” (there is also a movie by the same name).  Include an analysis of why Enron went bankrupt; what advances Enron brought to the Weather Risk field, and lessons learned for today’s weather risk traders.  

Or…

Project (2):  1000-1500 word review of “The Drunkards’ Walk”.  What are the lessons for weather risk traders in this book?  Do you agree with the author’s characterization of our ability to predict the future?  Why or why not? 

In addition…

For each of the three forecasting contests we run this semester, you will receive one-half extra credit point for beating the student consensus.

Grading Policy:  In general, there will be no ‘curve’ applied to the overall grades.  However, the class average for the final grades will be no lower than a 3.0 (on a scale of 4.0).

Forecasts will be graded in the following manner:

Consensus:  “A”

NWS/Weather Channel/MOS:  “B”

Climatology:  “C”

Academic Integrity

Students in this class are expected to write up their problem sets individually, to work the exams on their own, (and for the extra credit section) to write their papers in their own words using proper citations. Class members may work on the problem sets in groups, but then each student must write up the answers separately. Students are not to copy problem or exam answers from another person's paper and present them as their own; students may not plagiarize text from papers or websites written by others. Students who present other people's work as their own will receive at least a 0 on the assignment and may well receive an F or XF in the course. Please see the Earth and Mineral Sciences Academic Integrity Policy, which this course adopts.

To learn more, see Penn State's "Plagiarism Tutorial for Students."

Course Copyright

All course materials students receive or to which students have online access are protected by copyright laws. Students may use course materials and make copies for their own use as needed, but unauthorized distribution and/or uploading of materials without the instructor’s express permission is strictly prohibited. University Policy AD 40, the University Policy Recording of Classroom Activities and Note Taking Services addresses this issue. Students who engage in the unauthorized distribution of copyrighted materials may be held in violation of the University’s Code of Conduct, and/or liable under Federal and State laws.

Accommodations for Students with Disabilities

Penn State welcomes students with disabilities into the University's educational programs. Every Penn State campus has an office for students with disabilities. The Office for Disability Services (ODS) website provides contact information for every Penn State campus. For further information, please visit the Office for Disability Services website.

In order to receive consideration for reasonable accommodations, you must contact the appropriate disability services office at the campus where you are officially enrolled, participate in an intake interview, and provide documentation based on the documentation guidelines. If the documentation supports your request for reasonable accommodations, your campus’s disability services office will provide you with an accommodation letter. Please share this letter with your instructors and discuss the accommodations with them as early in your courses as possible. You must follow this process for every semester that you request accommodations.

Attendance

This course abides by the Penn State Attendance Policy E-11 and Conflict Exam Policy 44-35. Please also see Illness Verification Policy, and Religious Observance Policy. Students who miss class for legitimate reasons will be given a reasonable opportunity to make up missed work, including exams and quizzes. Students are not required to secure the signature of medical personnel in the case of illness or injury and should use their best judgment on whether they are well enough to attend class or not; the University Health Center will not provide medical verification for minor illnesses or injuries. Other legitimate reasons for missing class include religious observance, family emergencies, and regularly scheduled university-approved curricular or extracurricular activities. Students who encounter serious family, health, or personal situations that result in extended absences should contact the Office of Student and Family Services for help. Whenever possible, students participating in University-approved activities should submit to the instructor a Class Absence Form available from the Registrar's Office, at least one week prior to the activity.

Weather Delays

Campus emergencies, including weather delays, are announced on Penn State News and communicated to cell phones, email, the Penn State Facebook page, and Twitter via PSUAlert (Sign up at: https://psualert.psu.edu/psualert/.)

Penn State E-mail Accounts, Learning Management System and Social Media

All official communications from Penn State are sent to students' Penn State e-mail accounts. Be sure to check your Penn State account regularly, or forward your Penn State e-mail to your preferred e-mail account, so you don't miss any important information.

METEO 460 has shifted from ‘ANGEL’ to ‘Canvas’ learning management system.  http://canvas.psu.edu/students/ Please become familiar with this link.

You will require a Facebook account to participate in the Commodity Trading portion of this course.  See the instructor immediately if you do not have a Facebook account.

Deferred Grades

If you are prevented from completing this course within the prescribed amount of time, it is possible to have the grade deferred with the concurrence of the instructor. To seek a deferred grade, you must submit a written request (by e-mail or U.S. post) to your instructor describing the reason(s) for the request. It is up to your instructor to determine whether or not you will be permitted to receive a deferred grade. If, for any reason, the course work for the deferred grade is not complete by the assigned time, a grade of "F" will be automatically entered on your transcript.

Diversity, Inclusion, and Respect 

Penn State is “committed to creating an educational environment which is free from intolerance directed toward individuals or groups and strives to create and maintain an environment that fosters respect for others” as stated in Policy AD29 Statement on Intolerance. All members of this class are expected to contribute to a respectful, welcoming and inclusive environment and to interact with civility. 

For additional information, see:

Mandated Reporting Statement 

Penn State’s policies require me, as a faculty member, to share information about incidents of sex-based discrimination and harassment (discrimination, harassment, sexual harassment, sexual misconduct, dating violence, domestic violence, stalking, and retaliation) with Penn State’s Title IX coordinator or deputy coordinators, regardless of whether the incidents are stated to me in person or shared by students as part of their coursework.  For more information regarding the University's policies and procedures for responding to reports of sexual or gender-based harassment or misconduct, please visit http://titleix.psu.edu.

Additionally, I am required to make a report on any reasonable suspicion of child abuse in accordance with the Pennsylvania Child Protective Services Law.

Disclaimer Statement

Please note that the specifics of this Course Syllabus can be changed at any time, and you will be responsible for abiding by any such changes. Changes will be posted to the course discussion forum.

Week Date Lecture topic(s) Guest Lecturer / Notes 

  • Week 1  
    • 10 Jan Intro/Forecasting Requirements / Canvas LMS
    • 12 Jan Probability Review / Risk Definition & Terminology
  • Week 2                       
    • 17 Jan Econ Review / Market Terms / Derivatives & Options /
      Forecasting Practice Week/
      Commence Lab sessions
    • 19 Jan Soybeans and the Market MARS Mentors
  • Week 3                       
    • 24 Jan Weather Data Quality Review
    • 26 Jan Review: Futures / Derivatives / Stats / Data QC
  • Week 4
    • 31 Jan Market Analysis
      Training for Up in the Air (Pattee Library) 
    • 2 Feb “Buying Better Weather” Dr. John Dutton
  • Week 5                       
    • 7 Feb Forecast Process (markets and weather)
    • 9 Feb Burn Analysis
  • Week 6
    • 14 Feb Overview of NOAA Organization and Services
    • 16 Feb Weather and Business Sustainability Dr. Erik Foley
  • Week 7
    • 21 Feb Technical Analysis
    • 23 Feb Atmospheric  Indices
  • Week 8
    • 27 Feb Atmospheric & Ocean Indices / MJO
      Up in the Air – Market Analysis Team 1
    • 2 Mar  "Extended Range Statistical Forecasting”  Dr. Steven Feldstein
    • 6-10 Mar Spring Break / No forecasting / Trading optional
  • Week 9
    • 14 Mar Goodness (the Value) of Forecasts
      Up in the Air – Market Analysis Team 2
    • 16 Mar EXAM I
  • Week 10
    • 21 Mar Forecast Verification
      Up in the Air – Market Analysis Team 3
    • .23 Mar Statistical Forecasting
  • Week 11
    • 28 Mar Wind & Renewables / Wind forecasts
      Up in the Air – Market Analysis Team 4
    • 30 Mar Long Range S2S Forecasts Mr. Paul Knight
  • Week 12
    • 4 Apr Weather Insurance I (Indices)
      Start ABI Wind Forecasts Monday
      Up in the Air – Market Analysis Team 5
    • 6 Apr Weather Insurance II (CAT Bonds)
  • Week 13
    • 11 Apr Communications Forecasts – and your Value Proposition
      Up in the Air / Market Analysis Team 6
    • 13 Apr Retail / Housing Weather Ris
    • 14 Apr  Trading Closes Friday
  • Week 14
    • 18 Apr National Security / Emergency Management Wx Risk
      Forecasts end this week
    • 20 Apr Maritime Weather Risk
      Extra Credit (Optional) Paper Due
  • Week 15
    • 25 Apr Guest Critique (Business Casual)
    • 27 Apr Guest Critique (Business Casual) 
  • Finals Week TBD Final Exam (Cumulative) 

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