Mark Antolik

(NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory)

Beyond MOS: New Initiatives in Statistical Post-processing at MDL

What Meteo Colloquium GR Homepage
When Apr 27, 2016
from 03:30 pm to 04:30 pm
Where 112 Walker Building
Contact Name Jon Nese
Contact email
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Mark Antolik NOAA


Mark S. Antolik

NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory

Silver Spring, MD

For over four decades, Model Output Statistics (MOS) forecast guidance perhaps has been the best-known work associated with statistical post-processing efforts at the National Weather Service’s Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL).  A well-posed MOS system is capable of reducing systematic biases in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model output as well as of serving as a valuable “first-guess” or starting point for human forecasters.

In recent years, however, the steady evolution of numerical models, ensembles, and observing systems has created the need for forecasters to be able to synthesize post-processed model information from multiple sources in a concise and efficient manner.  Accordingly, MDL has undertaken several efforts to address this need.  A number of these newer efforts will be discussed, including the National Blend of Models and its components; use of Ensemble Kernel Densities to post-process ensemble forecasts (EKDMOS); and the Weather Interactive Statistical Post-processing System (WISPS), a new MDL initiative to modernize its statistical development infrastructure and provide a framework for better collaboration with a wide range of external partners.