(NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory)
Beyond MOS: New Initiatives in Statistical Post-processing at MDL
|What||Meteo Colloquium GR Homepage|
Apr 27, 2016 03:30 PM
Apr 27, 2016 04:30 PM
Apr 27, 2016
from 03:30 pm to 04:30 pm
|Where||112 Walker Building|
|Contact Name||Jon Nese|
|Add event to calendar||
Mark S. Antolik
NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory
Silver Spring, MD
For over four decades, Model Output Statistics (MOS) forecast guidance perhaps has been the best-known work associated with statistical post-processing efforts at the National Weather Service’s Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL). A well-posed MOS system is capable of reducing systematic biases in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model output as well as of serving as a valuable “first-guess” or starting point for human forecasters.
In recent years, however, the steady evolution of numerical models, ensembles, and observing systems has created the need for forecasters to be able to synthesize post-processed model information from multiple sources in a concise and efficient manner. Accordingly, MDL has undertaken several efforts to address this need. A number of these newer efforts will be discussed, including the National Blend of Models and its components; use of Ensemble Kernel Densities to post-process ensemble forecasts (EKDMOS); and the Weather Interactive Statistical Post-processing System (WISPS), a new MDL initiative to modernize its statistical development infrastructure and provide a framework for better collaboration with a wide range of external partners.