The forecast system developed by Dr. Zhang's research team is one of the several NOAA experimental ("quasi-operational" strea, 1.5) hurricane prediction systems that is being evaluated by the National Hurricane Center in realtime.
The line labelled A4PS is the group's model forecast with assimilation of airborne Doppler radar and A4NR is their group's forecast initialized with GFS directly. According to Dr. Zhang, his research team has performed many retrospective runs with this prediction system for the past few years to be qualified for the NOAA stream 1.5 experimental system (stream 1 is operation and stream 2 is research, and thus stream 1.5 is designed to be from research to operation). The performance of their past runs is summarized in their recent paper published in Geophysical Research Letters, which is downloadable by visiting:
- Zhang, F., Y. Weng*, J. F. Gamache, and F. D. Marks, 2011: Performance of Cloud-resolving Hurricane Initialization and Prediction during 2008-2010 with Ensemble Data Assimilation of Inner-core Airborne Doppler Radar Observations. Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L15810, doi:10.1029/2011GL048469.