Michael E. Mann

Michael E. Mann

  • Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric Science
  • Joint Appointment with the Department of Geosciences
  • Director, Earth System Science Center
514 Walker Building
University Park, PA 16802
Email: mann@psu.edu
Phone: (814) 863-4075


  1. PhD -- Yale University


Dr. Michael E. Mann received his undergraduate degrees in Physics and Applied Math from the University of California at Berkeley, an M.S. degree in Physics from Yale University, and a Ph.D. in Geology & Geophysics from Yale University.

Dr. Mann was a Lead Author on the Observed Climate Variability and Change chapter of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Scientific Assessment Report in 2001 and was organizing committee chair for the National Academy of Sciences Frontiers of Science in 2003. He has received a number of honors and awards including NOAA's outstanding publication award in 2002 and selection by Scientific American as one of the fifty leading visionaries in science and technology in 2002. He contributed, with other IPCC authors, to the award of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize. He was awarded the Hans Oeschger Medal of the European Geosciences Union in 2012 and was awarded the National Conservation Achievement Award for science by the National Wildlife Federation in 2013. He made Bloomberg News' list of fifty most influential people in 2013.  In 2014, he was named Highly Cited Researcher by the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) and received the Friend of the Planet Award from the National Center for Science Education. He received the Stephen H. Schneider Award for Outstanding Climate Science Communication from Climate One in 2017, the Award for Public Engagement with Science from the American Association for the Advancement of Science in 2018 and the Climate Communication Prize from the American Geophysical Union in 2018. In 2019 he received the Tyler Prize for Environmental Achievement and in 2020 he received the World Sustainability Award of the MDPI Sustainability Foundation. He was elected to the U.S. National Academy of Sciences in 2020. He received the Leo Szilard Award of the American Physical Society in 2021. He is a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union, the American Meteorological Society, the Geological Society of America, the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry. He is also a co-founder of the award-winning science website RealClimate.org.

He is a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union, the American Meteorological Society, the Geological Society of America, the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry. He is also a co-founder of the award-winning science website RealClimate.org.

Dr. Mann is author of more than 200 peer-reviewed and edited publications, numerous op-eds and commentaries, and five books including Dire Predictions: Understanding Climate Change, The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines, The Madhouse Effect: How Climate Change Denial is Threatening our Planet, Destroying Our Politics, and Driving Us Crazy, The Tantrum that Saved the World and The New Climate War: The Fight to Take Back Our Planet.

Awards and Honors

2021      Leo Szilard Lectureship Award, American Physical Society

2020      Stephen Schneider Lecture, American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting

2020      World Sustainability Award, MDPI Sustainability Foundation

2020      Ten Most Influential Earth Scientists, Academic

2020      Elected to U.S. National Academy of Sciences

2020      Louis J. Battan Author’s Award, American Meteorological Society (AMS), for “The Tantrum that Saved the World”

2019      Tyler Prize for Environmental Achievement

2018      Climate Communication Prize, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

2018      Elected Fellow of the Geological Society of America.

2018      Award for Public Engagement with Science, American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS).

2018      Elected Fellow of the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry, Center for Skeptical Inquiry.

2017      Stephen H. Schneider Award for Outstanding Climate Science Communication, Climate One

2016      Elected Vice Chair, Topical Group on Physics of Climate (GPC), American Physical Society (APS)

2015      Elected Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science

2014      Named Highly Cited Researcher, Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) 

2014      Friend of the Planet Award, National Center for Science Education

2013      National Conservation Achievement Award, National Wildlife Federation

2013      Bloomberg News list of 50 Most Influential People

2013      Elected Fellow of the American Meteorological Society

2012      Hans Oeschger Medal, European Geosciences Union

2011      Elected Member-at-Large of Section W (Atmospheric & Hydrospheric Sciences), American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

2008      Elected Fellow of the American Geophysical Union

2008      Profiled in American Environmental Leaders From Colonial Times to the Present

2008      Website “RealClimate.org” (co-founded by M. Mann) chosen as one of top 15 “green” websites by Time Magazine (April 2008)

2007      Contributed (with other IPCC report authors) to the award of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize

2006      American Geophysical Union Editors’ Citation for Excellence in Refereeing (for ‘Geophysical Research letters’)

2005      Website “RealClimate.org” (co-founded by M. Mann) chosen as one of top 25 “Science and Technology” websites by Scientific American

2005      John Russell Mather Paper award for 2005 by the Association of American Geographers [for article: Frauenfeld, O., Davis, R.E., and Mann, M.E., A Distinctly Interdecadal Signal of Pacific Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction, Journal of Climate 18, 1709-1718, 2005]

2002      Named by Scientific American as one of 50 leading visionaries in science and technology

2002      Outstanding Scientific Paper award for 2002 by NOAA Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) [for article:  Delworth, T.L., Mann, M.E., Observed and Simulated Multidecadal Variability in the Northern Hemisphere, Climate Dynamics, 16, 661-676, 2000]

2002      Article [Mann et al, "Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries", Nature, 392, 779-787, 1998] selected for 'fast moving fronts' by Institute for Scientific Information (ISI)

2002      Selected as one of 10 'Mead Honored Faculty', University of Virginia

1998      Council of Graduate Schools' Distinguished Dissertation Award, nominated

1997      Phillip M. Orville Prize for outstanding dissertation in the earth sciences, Yale University

1996      Alexander Hollaender Distinguished Postdoctoral Fellowship (DOE)

1989      Josiah Willard Gibbs Prize for outstanding research and scholarship in Physics, Yale University

Research Interests

Current areas of research include reconstruction of past climate using climate paleoclimate ``proxy'' data, and model/data comparisons aimed at understanding the long-term behavior of the climate system and its relationship with possible external (including anthropogenic) "forcings'' of climate. Other areas of active research include simulation of climate using theoretical models, development of statistical methods for climate signal detection, and investigations of the response of geophysical and ecological systems to climate variability and climate change scenarios.

Teaching Interests

Ocean-Atmospheric Dynamics; Climatology; Paleoclimatology; Statistical and Time Series Methods

Selected Publications (of 200+ Total Peer-Reviewed/Edited)

Li, G., Cheng, L., Abraham, J.P., Zhu, J., Trenberth, Mann, M.E., Abraham, J.P., Increasing ocean stratification over the past half-century, Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038/s41558-020-00918-2, 2020.

Konapala, L., Mishra, A.K., Wada. Y., Mann, M.E., Climate change will affect global water availability through compounding changes in seasonal precipitation and evaporation, Nature Communications, 11, 3044, doi:10.1038/s41467-020-16757-w, 2020.

Cheng, L., Abraham, J.P., Zhu, J., Trenberth, K.E., Fasullo, J., Boyer, T., Locarnini, R., Zhang, B., Yu, F., Wan, L., Chen, X., Song, X., Liu, Y., Mann, M.E., Record-setting Ocean Warmth Continued in 2019, Advances in Atmospheric Science 37, 137-142, 2020.

Mann, M.E., Steinman, B.A., Miller, S.K., Absence of Internal Multidecadal and Interdecadal Oscillations in Climate Model Simulations, Nature Communications 11, 49, doi:10.1038/s41467-019-13823-w, 2020.

Post, E., Alley, R.B., Christensen, T.R., Macias-Fauria, M., Forbes, B.C., Gooseff, M.N., Iler, A., Kerby, J.T., Laidre, K.L., Mann, M.E., Olofsson, J., Stroeve, J.C., Ulmer, F., Virginia, R.A., Wang, M., The Polar Regions in a 2oC warmer world, Science Advances, 5, eaaw9883 doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aaw9883, 2019.

Mann, M.E., Radical reform and the Green New Deal, Nature, 573, 340-341, 2019.

Mann, M.E., The Weather Amplifier, Scientific American, 320, 43-49, 2019.

Lewandowsky, S., Cowtan, K., Risbey, J.S., Mann, M.E., Steinman, B.A., Oreskes, N., Rahmstorf, S., The “pause” in global warming in historical context: Comparing models to observations, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 123007, 2018.

Walker, A.M., Titley, D.W., Mann, M.E., Najjar, R.G., Miller, S.K., Steinman, B.A., A Fiscally Based Scale for Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge, Weather and Forecasting, 33, 1709-1733, 2018.

Mann, M.E., Rahmstorf, S., Kornhuber, K., Steinman, B.A., Miller, S.K., Coumou, D., Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events: The role of quasi-resonant amplification, Science Advances, 4:eaat3272, 2018.

Schurer, A., Cowtan, K., Hawkins, E., Mann, M.E., Scott, V., Tett, S.F.B., Interpreting the Paris Climate Target, Nature Geoscience, 1752-0908, doi:10.1038/s41561-018-0086-8, 2018.

Post, E., Steinman, B.A., Mann, M.E., Rates of phenological advance and warming have increased with latitude in the Northern Hemisphere over the past century, Scientific Reports 8, 3297, 2018.

Garner, A.J., Mann, M.E., Emanuel, K.A., Kopp, R.E., Lin, N., Alley, R.B., Horton, B.P., DeConto, R.M. Donnelly, J.P., Pollard, D., The Impact of Climate Change on New York City’s Coastal Flood Hazard: Increasing Flood Heights from the Pre-Industrial to 2300 CE, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 114, 11861-11866, 2017.

Lewandowsky, S., Freeman, M.C., Mann, M.E., Harnessing the uncertainty monster: Putting quantitative constraints on the intergenerational social discount rate, Global and Planetary Change, 156, 155–166, 2017.

Mann, M.E., Lloyd, E.A., Oreskes, N., Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Weather Events: The Case For an Alternative (Bayesian) Approach, Climatic Change, 144, 131-142, 2017.

Mann, M.E., Miller, S.K., Rahmstorf, S., Steinman, B.A., Tingley M., Record Temperature Streak Bears Anthropogenic Fingerprint, Geophys Res. Lett., 44, doi:10.1002/2017GL074056, 2017.

Mann, M.E., review of The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark, in Summer Books, Nature, 546, 28-29, 2017.

Mann, M.E., Al Gore gets inconvenient again, Nature, 546, 400-401, 2017.

Schurer, A.P., Mann, M.E., Hawkins, E., Hegerl, G.C., Tett, S.F.B., Importance of the pre-Industrial baseline for likelihood of exceeding Paris goals, Nature Climate Change , 7, 563-567, 2017.

Santer, B.D., Fyfe, J.C., Pallotta, G., Flato, G.M., Meehl, G.A., England, M.H., Hawkins, E., Mann, M.E., Painter, J.F., Bonfils, C., Cvijanovic, I., Meers, C., Wentz, F.J., Po-Chedley, S., Qiang, F., Zou, C.-Z.,  Investigating the Causes of Differences in Model and Satellite Tropospheric Warming Rates, Nature Geoscience, 10, 478-485, 2017.

Mann, M.E., Rahmstorf, S., Kornhuber, K., Steinman, B.A., Miller, S.K., Coumou, D., Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events, Scientific Reports, 7, 19831, 2017.

Mann, M.E., Joy-Hassol, S., Climate Trumps Everything, Scientific American, 316, 8, 2017.

Bateman, T.S., Mann, M.E., The supply of climate leaders must grow, Nature Climate Change, 6, 1052-1054, 2016.

Mann, M.E., Oreskes, N., Emanuel, K.A., AGU Should Sever Its Ties with ExxonMobil, Eos, 97, 8-9, doi:10.1029/2016EO061455, 2016.

Fyfe, J.C, Meehl, G.A., England, M.H., Mann, M.E., Santer, B.D., Flato, G.M., Hawkins, E., Gillet, N.P., Xie, S.-P., Kosaka, Y., Swart, N.C., Making sense of the early-2000s global warming slowdownNature Climate Change, 6, 224-228, 2016.

Mann, M.E., Rahmstorf, S., Steinman, B.A., Tingley, M., Miller, S.K., The Likelihood of Recent Record Warmth, Scientific Reports, 6, 19831, 2016.

Steinman, B.A. Frankcombe, L.M., Mann, M.E., Miller, S.K., England, M.H., Response to Comment on “Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures"Science, 350, 1326, 2015.

Mann, M.E., Two Degrees of FreedomScientific American, 313, 12, 2015.

Reed, A.J., Mann, M.E., Emanuel, K.A., Lin, N., Horton, B., Kemp, A.C., Donnelly, J.P., Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 112, 12610-12615, 2015.

Mann, M.E., Gleick, P.H., Climate Change and California Drought in the 21st Century, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 112, 3858-3859, 2015.

Rahmstorf, S., Box, J., Feulner, G., Mann, M.E., Robinson, A., Rutherford, S., Schaffernicht, E. Evidence for an exceptional 20th-Century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning, Nature Climate Change, 5, 475–480, 2015.

Steinman, B.A., Mann, M.E., Miller, S.K., Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures, Science, 347, 998-991, 2015.

Mann, M.E., The Serengeti strategy: How special interests try to intimidate scientists, and how best to fight back, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 71, 33-45, 2015.

Paaijmans, K.P., Blanford, J.I., Crane, R.G., Mann, M.E., Ning, L., Schreiber, K.V., Thomas M.B., Downscaling reveals diverse effects of anthropogenic climate warming on the potential for local environments to support malaria transmission, Climatic Change, 125, 479-488, 2014.

Rutherford, S., Mann, M.E., Missing tree rings and the AD 774-775 radiocarbon event, Nature Climate Change, 4, 648-649, 2014.

Mann, M.E., Steinman, B.A., Miller, S.K., On Forced Temperature Changes, Internal Variability and the AMO, Geophys. Res. Lett.(“Frontier” article), 41, 3211-3219, doi:10.1002/2014GL059233, 2014.

Mann, M.E., False Hope: The rate of global temperature rise may have hit a plateau, but a climate crisis still looms in the near future,Scientific American, p. 78-81, April 2014.

Sriver, R.L., Timmermann, A., Mann, M.E., Keller, K., Goosse, H., Improved representation of tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere dynamics in an intermediate complexity climate model, J. Climate, 27, 168-187, 2014.

Kozar, M.E., Mann, M.E., Emanuel, K.A., Evans, J.L., Long-term Variations of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity Downscaled from a Coupled Model Simulation of the Last Millennium, J. Geophys. Res., 118, 13383-13392, doi:10.1002/2013JD020380, 2013.

Mann, M.E., Rutherford, S., Schurer, A., Tett, S.F.B.,Fuentes, J.D., Discrepancies between the modeled and proxy-reconstructed response to volcanic forcing over the past millennium: Implications and possible mechanisms, J. Geophys. Res. 118, 7617-7627, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50609, 2013.

Schurer, A., Hegerl, G., Mann, M.E., Tett, S.F.B., Separating forced from chaotic climate variability over the past millennium, J. Climate, 26, 6954-6973, 2013.

Blanford J.I., Blanford S., Crane R.G., Mann, M.E., Paaijmans K.P., Schreiber, K.V., Thomas, M.B., Implications of temperature variation for malaria parasite development across Africa, Nature Scientific Reports, 3, 1300, doi:10.1038/srep01300, 2013.

Kozar, M.E., Mann, M.E., Camargo, S.J., Kossin, J.P., Evans, J.L., Stratified statistical models of North Atlantic basin-wide and regional tropical cyclone counts, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D18103, doi:10.1029/2011JD017170, 2012.

Ning, L., Mann, M.E., Crane, R., Wagener, T., Najjar, R.G., Singh, R., Probabilistic Projections of Anthropogenic Climate Change Impacts on Precipitation for the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States, J. Climate, 25, 5273-5291, 2012.

Steinman, B.A., Abbott, M.B., Mann, M.E., Stansell, N.D., Finney, B.P, 1500 year quantitative reconstruction of winter precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 109, 11619-11623, 2012. 

Mann, M.E., Fuentes, J.D., Rutherford, S., Underestimation of Volcanic Cooling in Tree-Ring Based Reconstructions of Hemispheric Temperatures, Nature Geoscience, 5, 202-205, 2012.

Kemp, A.C., Horton, B.P., Donnelly, J.P., Mann, M.E., Vermeer, M., Rahmstorf, S., Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 108, 11017-11022, 2011.

Mann, M.E., Zhang, Z., Rutherford, S., Bradley, R.S., Hughes, M.K., Shindell, D., Ammann, C., Faluvegi, G., Ni, F., Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly, Science 326, 1256-1260, 2009.

Mann, M.E., Woodruff, J.D., Donnelly, J.P., Zhang, Z., Atlantic hurricanes and climate over the past 1,500 years, Nature 460, 880-883, 2009.

Fan, F., Mann, M.E., Ammann, C.M., Understanding Changes in the Asian Summer Monsoon over the Past Millennium: Insights From a Long-Term Coupled Model Simulation, J. Climate 22, 1736-1748, 2009.

Mann, M.E., Defining Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 106, 4065-4066, 2009.

Steig, E.J., Schneider, D.P. Rutherford, S.D., Mann, M.E., Comiso, J.C., Shindell, D.T., Warming of the Antarctic ice sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year, Nature 1457, 459-463, 2009.

Mann, M.E., Zhang, Z., Hughes, M.K., Bradley, R.S., Miller, S.K., Rutherford, S., Proxy-Based Reconstructions of Hemispheric and Global Surface Temperature Variations over the Past Two Millennia, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 105, 13252-13257, 2008.

Mann, M.E., Smoothing of Climate Time Series Revisited, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L16708, doi:10.1029/2008GL034716, 2008.

Mann, M.E., Sabbatelli, T.A., Neu, U., Evidence for a Modest Undercount Bias in Early Historical Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Counts,Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L22707, doi:10.1029/2007GL031781, 2007.

Mann, M.E., Rutherford, S., Wahl, E., Ammann, C., Robustness of Proxy-Based Climate Field Reconstruction Methods, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D12109, doi: 10.1029/2006JD008272, 2007.

Mann, M.E., Emanuel, K.A., Atlantic Hurricane Trends linked to Climate Change, Eos, 87, 24, p 233, 238, 241, 2006.

Mann, M.E., Cane, M.A., Zebiak, S.E., Clement, A., Volcanic and Solar Forcing of the Tropical Pacific Over the Past 1000 Years, Journal of Climate, 18, 447-456, 2005.

Jones, P.D., Mann, M.E., Climate Over Past Millennia, Reviews of Geophysics, 42, RG2002, doi:10.1029/2003RG000143, 2004.

Adams, J.B., Mann, M.E., Ammann, C.M., Proxy evidence for an El Niño-like Response to Volcanic Forcing, Nature, 426, 274-278, 2003.

Mann, M.E., The Value of Multiple Proxies (invited 'perspective' article), Science, 297, 1481-1482, 2002.

Shindell, D.T., Schmidt, G.A., Mann, M.E., Rind, D., Waple, A., Solar forcing of regional climate change during the Maunder Minimum,Science, 294, 2149-2152, 2001.

Delworth, T.L., Mann, M.E., Observed and Simulated Multidecadal Variability in the Northern Hemisphere, Climate Dynamics, 16, 661-676, 2000.

Rittenour, T., Brigham-Grette, J., Mann, M.E., El Niño-like Climate Teleconnections in North America During the Late Pleistocene: Insights From a New England Glacial Varve Chronology, Science, 288, 1039-1042, 2000.

Mann, M.E., Park, J., Oscillatory Spatiotemporal Signal Detection in Climate Studies: A Multiple-Taper Spectral Domain Approach,Advances in Geophysics, 41, 1-131, 1999.

Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S. and Hughes, M.K., Northern Hemisphere Temperatures During the Past Millennium: Inferences, Uncertainties, and Limitations, Geophysical Research Letters, 26, 759-762, 1999.

Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S., and Hughes, M.K., Global-Scale Temperature Patterns and Climate Forcing Over the Past Six Centuries,Nature, 392, 779-787, 1998.

Mann, M.E., Park, J., Greenhouse Warming and Changes in the Seasonal Cycle of Temperature: Model Versus Observations,Geophysical Research Letters, 23, 1111-1114, 1996.

Mann, M.E., Park, J., Bradley, R.S., Global Interdecadal and Century-Scale Climate Oscillations During the Past Five Centuries, Nature,378, 266-270, 1995.

Mann, M.E., Park, J., Global scale modes of surface temperature variability on interannual to century time scales, Journal of Geophysical Research, 99, 25819-25833, 1994.